Despite the steady growth in domestic policy frequent, but for the future of the chemical industry, the situation is still gloomy sound one. At the "2012 China Plastics Industry Conference" co-sponsored by the Dashang Group, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation and the China Light Industry Association yesterday, the industry has a fear of falling product prices.
“China’s economy has reached a critical turning point.†Xiang Songxi, chief economist of the Agricultural Bank of China, said that the domestic economic growth has slowed sharply beyond expectations. This may be due to the fact that China’s economy has fallen into a severe situation. In the vicious cycle of debt deflation and deleveraging. If this is the case, there will be a long-term domestic demand growth and lack of total demand. Faced with this situation, "the traditional stimulus policies we used to adjust the reserve ratio, cut the benchmark interest rate, and widen bank credit basically have no effect."
The participating domestic chemical companies generally agreed that the venue was shrouded in a thick atmosphere of pessimism. Regarding the sustainability of the recent upswing, the industry is generally not optimistic. "The current round of rebound is difficult to sustain." Shi Zheming, general manager of Research Institute of Yuanda Group, made it clear that on the one hand, the domestic economic growth rate is still declining. No matter whether external demand or domestic demand have improved, on the other hand, once rebounded, For more than two weeks and a large margin, it is possible to attract foreign plastics and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) stocks to the domestic market to suppress prices. "Rebounds can occur at any time, but time will be short-term, which is the characteristic of a bear market rally."
David Pauls, Global Director of Chemicals at Cargill Investment (China) Co., Ltd., said that although crude oil and downstream chemicals prices have occasionally decoupled, the correlation between the two is very close in the long term. At the same time, as Asia’s importance in terms of consumer demand is increasing, future petrochemical product prices will be mainly determined by the demand of Asia, especially China. "In the rest of the second quarter and the third quarter, or even the entire second half of the year, the price of oil may fall in the range of $97 to $100 a barrel."
According to data provided by the China Light Industry Federation, the chemical industry, including plastics, is in its lowest point in one year. From January to April, the industrial output value of the plastics industry was 476.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.87%, of which the month-on-month growth in April was 12.86%, and the growth rate fell by 8 percentage points compared with March. In April, the light plastic boom index was only 94.22.
Judging from the performance of the futures market, in the past two months or so, the trend of the energy and chemical sector has been relatively weak. The specific performance is before the metal plate and the agricultural product plate fell, and the general decline was relatively large. From March 14 to May 21, the declines in PTA, plastics, PVC, methanol, coke, etc. were all around 10%, and the drop in rubber was close to 20%. Meanwhile, the Wenhua Finance Commodity Index and the petrochemical industry The index, color index, steel index, grain index and edible oil index fell 8.42%, 17.25%, 7.87%, 8.13%, 6.79% and 4.98%, respectively. Since the 21st of this month, although the energy-saving varieties including plastics and PVC have rebounded, they are still in the bottom area.
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