Due to the Spring Festival holiday and the snowstorm in the South, the production and sales of commercial vehicles in February this year were 184,800 and 174,700, respectively, down by 14.71% and 11.25% respectively compared with the previous month. In January-February this year, commercial vehicles sold a total of 401,600 units and 371,500 units, an increase of 14.25% and 21.26% year-on-year. Last year, the growth rate of commercial vehicles in China exceeded the growth rate of passenger vehicles for the first time, which was far higher than the growth rate of the industry and became the fastest growing market for the automotive industry. The factors affecting the commercial vehicle market this year have undergone major changes. The country’s macro-control efforts will be strengthened and a stable fiscal policy and tight monetary policy will be implemented. For the commercial vehicle market, it means that the business climate will be reduced, and this hot growth may be difficult to sustain.
As a means of production, trucks, especially heavy-duty trucks, have a large correlation with the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society. In the long run, the factors that promote the growth of the medium- and heavy-duty truck industry still exist, mainly the road freight demand, infrastructure construction and real estate development investment. This year, the central government's policy of curbing investment will exert its power, and the country will slow down its investment projects. Therefore, the growth rate of trucks, especially heavy trucks, should be lower than in 2007.
On the other hand, from January 1, 2008, trucks that do not meet the National III emission standards will not be able to be listed and sold. The entire industry chain of the truck industry is facing challenges, including the issue of how the engines and oil products meet the standards. At present, there are a small number of standard III trucks on the market and the prices are high. Many consumption potentials are released ahead of last year's State II trucks, which may lead to a decline in heavy truck demand in 2008.
Compared with the freight market, the passenger car market situation is relatively optimistic. Passenger car products are mainly used to improve residents' travel, and are less affected by the decline in fixed asset investment. Demand has determined that the market is moving steadily.
However, tightening monetary policy in 2008 will inevitably affect the passenger car market. The increase in the difficulty of bank credit and the increase in interest rates for deposits and loans have had an adverse effect on the financing of passenger vehicles to update vehicles. The further increase in the price of fuel has also produced a certain inhibitory effect on the growth of bus sales. The tightening of social capital supply in 1995 and 2005 had had a certain impact on the passenger car industry and eliminated some enterprises. This year, the bus industry is likely to usher in a new round of reshuffle.
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