What did the Nineteenth Congress report inject into the Chinese auto industry?

The will and strategy of the country have profoundly affected the development of the industry. Regardless of China and foreign countries, the development of any industry is closely related to the national will and national strategy. The United States’ space and high-tech industries, Japan’s industrial robotics and fuel cell vehicle industries, Russia’s military industry and the decline of the automotive industry, China’s high-speed rail and aerospace industries, etc. are all exceptions. Especially since this year, major European countries have announced the suspension of the timetable for the sale of traditional fuel vehicles, which will have a profound impact on the future direction of the automotive industry and the allocation of corporate resources. Therefore, some Chinese economists have scholastically considered that industrial development is a pure and pure process of free marketization. It is a paradox of ideology.

In October of the golden autumn, the convening of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed a new strategy, a new vision, new expectations and a new journey for this long-standing nation and China, which is very close to prosperity. The 30,000-plus-word conference report (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") starts from history, stands on the basis of reality, looks forward to the future, and transcends both the Chinese and foreign countries. It will not only affect the future of the country and the nation, but will also affect the direction of each industrial strategy and the path of resource allocation.

Although the report does not specifically mention the auto industry, as a programmatic document for the development of the party and the country in the next five or even two or three decades, it also affects the automobile industry, which is an important and even strategic pillar of China. How to influence, what impact, all walks of life have to check! Its core proposition is: What has the report injected into China's auto industry?

I will use the kite model of the industry evolution general analysis framework put forward in my new book “The Car Utopia” to interpret it. For the reader to be able to effectively grasp the context of this article, I first made a brief review of the kite model. The evolution of an industry is not a single factor or a single function or a combination of several variables, but a process of co-evolution of the six key capabilities. These six capabilities include: driving forces, strategic foresight, quality of competition, innovation structure, system integration and complementary industries.

The meticulous reading of articles and reports has injected new impetus, new directions, and new requirements for the six key capability elements of the Chinese automotive industry's kite system. Although some of them are still difficult to fully analyze, they can be provided to the industry as a whole.

1. Inject new driving force, especially confidence and mission will

The driving force is the engine of industrial evolution and the driving force behind the development and development of the industry. Looking back on history, the Chinese auto industry has not solved the problem of driving forces. One of the topics of the Nineteenth Congress is: "Forget your heart and remember your mission." What is the initial heart of the Chinese auto industry? What is the mission? The relevant agencies of the Chinese automobile industry must combine the actual deep reflection and reflection of these two questions, which is the source of the development of the industry. In particular, government agencies and industry associations should not only focus their attention on the planning of scale, auto shows and various types of forums.

The report proposes: "To seize the great victory of socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era and make unremitting efforts to realize the Chinese dream of a great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation." As China's auto industry as a strategic pillar industry, it is necessary to provide support for winning this great victory, and we must assume our mission for this great renaissance! The mission of China's auto industry in the new era is to step out of the “big but not strong” scale competition environment, establish the ideal country for automobiles, and create world-class technology, world-class products, world-class brands and world-class enterprises!

However, in the current industry, some people still lack application self-confidence, and pessimism and non-communism are still haunting. Last week, the author saw the “Seminar on Strategic Achievements of Auto Powers” ​​held by the Chinese Academy of Engineering. A government official who has presided over the formulation of industrial policies has decided that the “China is not going to be a traditional car!” and even the policy makers and policy makers So how can we compete with foreign elites! The premise of the battlefield defeating the enemy is courage and self-confidence. The mourning will be defeated, and the air will fail.

The report provided a shotgun for the skeptics and pessimists of China's auto brands and independent innovation! The report firmly put forward and demanded: "The whole party must consciously increase road confidence, theoretical self-confidence, institutional self-confidence, and cultural self-confidence." In order for the Chinese auto industry to achieve breakthroughs in innovation and international competition, first of all, the government and the enterprise must have a high degree of industrial confidence. This is the biggest driving force at present. If China's industries such as aerospace, high-speed rail, Beidou, and communications equipment rise, if there is no self-confidence, where is the pattern of world competition today?

The report clearly puts forward a new judgment on the new changes in the major contradictions in China's society in the new era, namely the "contradictions between the people's growing good living needs and unbalanced development." Cars are an important part of the people's good life. It is required that China's auto brand business should change from a promising development to wholeheartedly improving product quality and satisfying consumption upgrade requirements.

Core values ​​and industrial spirit are important components of the industry's driving forces. China's auto industry is different from China's aerospace and high-speed rail industries. So far, it has not had its own core values ​​and industrial spirit. The report put forward the "We must uphold Marxism, firmly establish the lofty ideals of communism and the common ideal of socialism with Chinese characteristics, cultivate and implement the core values ​​of socialism," and also sum up and maintain our own core values ​​and industrial spirits for China's auto industry. New requirements and guidance. “Cultural self-confidence is a more fundamental, deeper, and more lasting force in the development of a country and a nation.”

Entrepreneurs and their spirit are the core elements of the industrial driving force. The reason why China's auto industry failed to achieve a fundamental breakthrough in competitiveness and innovation for more than 60 years is directly related to the scale of entrepreneurs and the lack of entrepreneurship. The report clearly proposes "inspire and protect entrepreneurial spirit", which will provide a policy basis for China's auto industry to strengthen the state-owned and private entrepreneur groups, and also put forward new requirements for the reform of government management methods.

2. Indicate new strategic goals and phases

The report proposes that by 2035, "China's economic strength and scientific and technological strength will leap up dramatically and become among the forefront of innovative countries." At the same time, it is necessary to build a “manufacturing power” and a “powerful country with traffic.” This requires that China's auto industry should also establish an innovative industry by 2035 and achieve breakthroughs in core technologies, independent innovation, and international competitiveness. As the "Utopia of the Car" puts forward: "As long as we build integration capabilities in accordance with the kite system, China will build a car ideal for the country."

The report puts forward: "The socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era. This is a new historical orientation for China's development." In keeping with the new orientation of the country's development, China's auto industry must also enter the new era as soon as possible, and we must profoundly sum up past experience and problems. Think and position the development stage and path of the industry.

"The socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era, which means that the hard-earned Chinese nation in modern times has ushered in a great leap from standing up, becoming rich and strong, and ushering in a bright future for the realization of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation." The industry needs to achieve a leap from being good to good, from large to not strong, to big and strong, and adding bright colors to the great rejuvenation of the nation.

The report proposes that state and social development should be arranged in two phases from 2020 to the middle of this century. In the first stage, from 2020 to 2035, we will basically realize socialist modernization on the basis of building a well-off society in an all-round way. The second stage, from 2035 to the middle of this century, will build China into a prosperous, strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious and beautiful socialist modernized country based on the basic realization of modernization. At that time, the Chinese nation will stand taller in the world's national forest.

China's auto industry must fully follow the national and social development strategy. The government's competent authorities should reorganize the industry's development strategy and phases, explicitly adapt to the country's two major stages of the specific goals and tasks, and formulate specific milestones. Auto companies need to increase their strategic length and formulate strategies for the next fifteen years. At present, the strategy of most companies only focuses on the next five or ten years, and German Volkswagen developed a 2037 strategy as early as 2012. Toyota put forward a strategy for 2050 the year before last.

3. In order to improve the quality of industry competition, new rules and requirements have been put forward

Historically, it has been forbidden for private capital to enter the auto industry. This has led to an important reason that China’s auto industry is not fully competitive domestically. The report further clarified further the improvement of the socialist market economic system and made the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources. This determines the policy basis for China's auto industry to achieve full competition.

The report puts forward: “Economic system reform must focus on improving the property rights system and the market-based allocation of factors, realizing effective incentives for property rights, free flow of elements, flexible price response, fair and orderly competition, and survival of the fittest.” “Deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises and developing a mix Ownership economy, nurturing world-class enterprises with global competitiveness, fully implementing the market access negative list system, clearing up and eliminating a variety of regulations and practices that impede unified market and fair competition, supporting the development of private enterprises, and stimulating the vitality of various market entities.”

Excessive administrative examination and approval system and strict market access have once been another drawback that restricts the competitiveness of China's auto companies. The report puts forward: "Efforts are made to build an economic system where the market mechanism is effective, microscopic entities are dynamic, and macroeconomic control is moderate, so as to continuously enhance China's economic innovation and competitiveness."

Therefore, in the future, the way in which the relevant government departments manage the industry will undergo major changes. Based on industrial innovation and competitiveness, unreasonable administrative approvals will be eliminated, and market access management methods will be implemented, which are “broad in and out strictly”; especially for all types of new Enterprises should not set strict restrictions on access, for example, it is too early to restrict new enterprises of traditional fuel vehicles. The entry of new-type enterprises such as New Energy and China Mobile Auto should be more liberalized, and it should not be as if very stringent access conditions are set. Otherwise, it will be difficult for China to produce Tesla-like enterprises.

Quality and efficiency are the eternal themes and means of corporate competition. In recent years, concepts such as Internet+, Industry 4.0, smart manufacturing, cloud computing, and big data have been flooded, and the auto industry has neglected the essence of competitiveness such as quality and efficiency. (The report of the Nineteenth Congress did not propose the concepts of "smart manufacturing" and "Industry 4.0" and put forward requirements from a more scientific point of view). The latecomers to South Korea and Japan’s auto companies have made breakthroughs in international competition with quality as the breakthrough. The strong competitiveness of German cars is also based on the prestigious product quality.

The report clearly requires that: "To build a modern economic system, we must focus our efforts on developing the economy in the real economy, make the improvement of the quality of the supply system the main target, and significantly increase China's economic quality advantage." "We must uphold quality first and give priority to efficiency." The main line of supply-side structural reforms is to promote quality change in economic development, change in efficiency, change in power, and improve total factor productivity."

Therefore, while the government authorities and industry associations are doing a good job of strategic and innovative planning, they must re-examine the focus and orientation of their work. They must perform the quality upgrade project in the same way as the Chinese government actively promotes quality management upgrades in the mid-1980s. In particular, efforts should be made to build a core product quality management and upgrade system. On the other hand, it is necessary to improve the efficiency of automobile companies in all directions. Efficiency is the prerequisite for cost and price competition. Otherwise, the Chinese automobile industry will lose future competitive capital in focusing only on strategic planning and technological innovation.

What needs to be pointed out in particular is that unlike the past, the “One Belt and One Road” will provide China’s auto industry with opportunities and opportunities for exploring the international market and participating in international competition. In August of this year, CNHTC took the lead in Pakistan to obtain the bonus brought by the “One Belt One Road” initiative. The report clearly pointed out: "The door to China's opening will not be closed, it will only grow bigger and bigger. We must focus on the construction of 'One Belt and One Road'. We must adhere to the principle of common development and sharing and strengthen the ability to innovate in innovation. Cooperation will form an open pattern of linkages between domestic and foreign land and sea, and mutual east-west cooperation. It will expand foreign trade, cultivate new models of new trade forms, and promote the construction of a powerful trade.” For this reason, Chinese independent brand enterprises must be based on the national “One Belt and One Road” layout. Formulate its own new strategy for foreign competition.

4. Put forward new ideas for optimizing the industrial innovation structure

The innovation-driven strategy is one of the important strategies put forward by the 18th National Congress and is also the focus of the current government. The Nineteenth Congress continued to put innovation as an important content: "Innovation is the primary driving force for development and strategic support for the construction of a modern economic system." It also proposes a strategic vision that will be at the forefront of innovation in 2035. “We must aim at the forefront of science and technology in the world, strengthen basic research, and achieve major breakthroughs in forward-looking basic research and leading original results. Strengthen basic research in application, expand implementation of major national science and technology projects, highlight key common technologies, cutting-edge leading technologies, modern engineering technologies, and subversion Technological innovation."

Over the past 60 years, China's auto industry has basically followed the catch-up of the national innovation paradigm: "Introduction - Digestion - Absorption - Reinvention". However, with the accumulation of technology and innovation capabilities, China's auto industry needs a transformation of realistic innovation methods, actively seeking breakthroughs in the front-end of technology, and developing positive development. One of the important tasks and ideas is to strengthen basic research. In addition to universities and other research institutions, large-scale automotive companies must include basic research as an important topic for innovation. The developed countries’ automotive companies have all established strong basic research systems, and the innovation system of China’s auto companies is mainly technological development. This is the biggest trap for China’s auto industry to achieve both large and strong.

There is a wrong view in the industry that the development stage of China's auto industry has not yet reached the time of basic research. However, in the early stage of development, that is, in the 1950s, Toyota established the Physical and Chemical Research Institute in Tokyo. This is the predecessor of the Toyota Academia Sinica. Therefore, reforming and adjusting existing technical organizations has become an urgent task for China's auto companies: First, reorganize the traditional technology center mixed-flow organization system (all technical and innovation functions or research and development functions in a technical center) as soon as possible Study or separate research and development; Second, set up different R & D organizations for different stages and functions of technology development. The recent reorganization of FAW Technology Center is a correct direction. (See the author's public article: Why did FAW disperse the original technology center? ).

The establishment of an industrial innovation system is an important foundation and support for industrial innovation in a country. The report proposes: "Deepen the reform of the science and technology system, establish a technological innovation system that focuses on companies as the mainstay, market orientation, and deep integration of industry, universities, and research, strengthen support for SME innovation, and promote the transformation of scientific and technological achievements. Advocate a culture of innovation and strengthen intellectual property creation, To protect and utilize a large number of strategic scientific and technological talents, leading scientists and technicians, young scientific and technological talents, and high-level innovation teams with international standards.” This puts forward new requirements for government agencies, companies, universities, and industry associations in the automotive industry in China. .

Promoting green development and improving ecological civilization construction constitute an important part of the report. “Accelerate the establishment of a legal system and policy orientation for green production and consumption, establish and improve a green and low-carbon recycling economic system, build a market-oriented green technology innovation system, develop green finance, and expand energy conservation and environmental protection industries, clean production industries, and clean energy industries. We will promote the revolution in energy production and consumption and build a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient energy system.” This sets new requirements for the direction of China’s automotive product, technology, and process innovation. The establishment of a green technology innovation system should become an automotive company and government authority. Future focus of universities, colleges and industry associations.

5, for the industry's system integration, especially the development of parts and components industry has proposed a new direction

The integrity of the system is the basis of a country’s economic and industrial development. Compared with other developing countries, China's advantage lies in its relatively sound industrial system, but it is still far from the high-quality, high-tech industrial systems of developed countries. To this end, the report proposes that "the construction of a modern economic system is an urgent requirement to cross the juncture and the strategic goal of China's development" and "to accelerate the construction of an industrial system that integrates the development of the real economy, scientific and technological innovation, modern finance, and human resources." This puts forward new requirements for the establishment of a modern industrial system in China's automobile industry.

The lagging development of the parts and components industry is the key to restricting the development of the automobile industry, and it is also the main reason that leads to a “big but not strong” vehicle industry. The reason why the developed countries’ automotive industry is powerful cannot be separated from its powerful parts and components industry. Each car power has a number of world-class parts and components companies, such as the United States Delphi and Johnson Controls, Germany's Bosch and the mainland, Japan's Denso and Aisin Seiki, France's Valeo and the entire plastic, South Korea's friction Bis and Paveson. The Chinese government and enterprises must attach importance to spare parts, especially the development of core basic components, in terms of strategic planning and resource allocation. The premise is to clearly understand the following three reasons that lead to the backwardness of China's spare parts industry:

First, the state ignored the importance attached to the parts and components industry in strategic planning and industrial policies, and failed to timely guide the effective allocation of resources to the parts and components industry. Due to the lack of unified planning, the pattern of weak, small, scattered, and low market concentration of parts and components companies has not been significantly improved. The key spare parts and components are wholly foreign-owned and joint-venture-controlled enterprises rely mainly on imports. One of the important reasons why Japan's auto industry has succeeded in catching up with European and American auto powers is that the Japanese government attaches great importance to the development of parts and components. In the early stages of the automotive industry's development, parts and components were considered by the Japanese government to be the key to Japan's lagging behind Europe and the United States. In 1956, the Japanese government promulgated the "Provisional Measures for the Promotion of the Interim Measures for the Machinery Industry". This is Japan's most important industrial policy for fostering the automotive industry. It has focused on supporting small and medium-sized enterprises that produce parts and components.

Second, the R&D of China's spare parts enterprises still lags far behind the entire vehicle level. On the one hand, the small scale of the company leads to weak development capacity, low-tech products, and lack of long-term investment. On the other hand, the government's financial support is mainly devoted to vehicle companies. At the same time, major scientific and technological research projects lack the participation of parts and components companies. For example, the original "863" and "973" plans of the Ministry of Science and Technology mainly funded vehicle companies. China's spare parts companies generally lack independent research and development capabilities and R&D facilities. The annual development input costs are generally about 1% to 1.6% of annual sales revenue, while developed countries already account for 3% to 5%, and some even reach 10%. At present, the investment in the auto parts industry in developed countries is 1.2-1.5 times that of vehicle manufacturers, while our country is only 0.3 and the investment is seriously insufficient.

Third, China’s “zero-to-zero relationship” and excessive procurement tendering system have severely restricted the long-term R&D investment of parts and components companies. The relationship between China's auto companies and parts and components companies is a typical "slavery relationship." The high-level trading relationship among vehicle companies is only to keep down the price of parts and components, and it lacks guidance and support for the promotion and management of relevant parts and components companies. Many vehicle companies have severely distorted the concept of "zero inventory" and cherish "I don't save you", that is, vehicle companies have zero inventories and parts companies have more. Automobile production is a systematic process. If the parts and components companies are not profitable, how to maintain continuous investment and technological upgrading? Simply blindly driving down the prices of parts and components, parts companies will inevitably make a fuss about materials and quality on the premise that capacity cannot be improved, and ultimately affect the product quality of the entire vehicle. Another problem for vehicle companies is excessive procurement bidding. This poses the biggest problem: Every new generation of products must be re-tendered. This will inevitably lead parts companies to make long-term sustainability of a product. Input. Many of Toyota's practices for parts and components companies are contrary to ours.

6. In order to establish a competitive complementary industry, new standards and new requirements are proposed

One of the reasons why China's auto industry is big but not strong is that its complementary industries are not strong. The lack of complementary industries such as equipment manufacturing, materials industry, and electronics industry are important reasons why the Chinese auto industry was not strong enough. In addition, there are two other reasons that have been overlooked: the lack of basic research in China's auto industry and the lack of innovation in capital market support. The developed automobile industry in developed countries is developed because their related basic research is very powerful. The strict profit orientation of China's capital market, rather than the innovation-oriented listing rules, has greatly hampered the automotive industry's innovation process and made it difficult for China to foster companies like Tesla in the United States. Tesla has not yet achieved profitability, but the U.S. capital market has provided great capital space for its innovation. Enterprises such as Tesla must not be allowed to list under today's Chinese capital market system. However, how many companies in the Chinese auto industry like Tesla are waiting for listing to raise capital? !

The report proposes new guidelines for solving the above problems, and puts forward new requirements for relevant agencies:

The first is to "accelerate the building of a manufacturing powerhouse, accelerate the development of advanced manufacturing, and promote the deep integration of the Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and the real economy, in the high-end consumption, innovation lead, green low-carbon, sharing economy, modern supply chain, human capital services In other fields, we will cultivate new growth points and create new kinetic energy, support the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, accelerate the development of modern service industries, aim at the improvement of international standards, promote the development of China's industries into the high-end of the global value chain, and cultivate several world-class advanced manufacturing clusters." China's automobile industry must learn lessons from the past, and it must face the future disruptive industries and technological changes in the field of electrification, intelligence, networking, materialization, and sharing, in batteries, sensors, industrial software, artificial intelligence, and cloud computing. And complementary industries such as big data should increase investment and intensity.

The second is to “aim at the forefront of science and technology in the world, strengthen basic research, and achieve major breakthroughs in forward-looking basic research and leading original results. Strengthen basic application research, expand implementation of major national science and technology projects, highlight key common technologies, leading-edge technologies, and modern engineering technologies. , disruptive technological innovation.” Basic research must be able to industrialization, and its important mechanism is cooperation between production, education and research. However, there is a misunderstanding in the cooperation between production, education and research in China's automobile industry: the university is to do enterprise development, and the company entrusts the university with the project's requirements for direct application or industrialization. Enterprises and universities do not establish an effective division of labor based on their core competencies. That is, on the cooperation of large-scale production, research, and research projects, what should the universities study in the front-end, what companies should research in the back-end, and what they should cooperate with in the back-end, universities, and enterprises. Effective division of labor. Tsinghua University Automotive Department's breakthrough in ABS and AMT is because we and the company have carried out effective division of labor according to different stages of technology. Therefore, from the perspective of the entire industry, the cooperation mechanism for the effective division of labor among production, education, and research in China needs to be improved.

The third is to “deepen the reform of the financial system, enhance the economic capabilities of the financial services sector, increase the proportion of direct financing, and promote the healthy development of multi-level capital markets.” This has listed China’s traditional and emerging technologies as complete vehicles and parts and components companies (such as Chery and FAW. Companies such as IPOs, electric vehicles, sensors, unmanned vehicles, big data, industrial software, etc., provide strong policy foundations and institutional guarantees, and in particular set forth clear requirements for the China Securities Regulatory Commission to reform its current listing review system. If it fails to reform the current listing review system, it will become a serious impediment to China's manufacturing technology and industrial innovation. An important indicator to measure whether it can be reformed is whether it can successfully approve the timely listing of autos and parts companies with innovative companies like Tesla.

This morning, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China sent in the Great Hall of the People in the Great Hall of the Victory. However, our country and our nation have entered the new era and the prelude to the prosperity of the world has only just begun; our economy, industry and enterprises have entered the new era and the prelude to cross-border transnational activities, and it has just been opened; the prelude to the construction of a car ideal country , also slowly opened!

The journey of the rise and great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation will never sail all the way, but:

Castle Peak can not cover, after all, go east!

The Central Plains Gango also smells, and there is a descendant of the reverse Hu Chuan!

Sleeping in the night to hear the wind and rain, iron horse glaciers come to dream!

The warriors hungry and flirt with meat, laugh and talk about drinking the Xiongnu blood!

Yellow sand battle wearing armor, do not break Loulan will not return!

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