The Fed or another rate cut

Due to the forecast that the Fed will cut interest rates again to stimulate economic growth, fuel demand will rise. Affected by this, the New York crude oil futures reached new highs on Wednesday. At the close of trading on Wednesday, the New York Mercantile Exchange, light crude oil futures for March, was $100.74 a barrel, up $0.73 from the previous trading day; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil futures at $98.42, down $0.14; New York heating oil March. Futures fell 275.46 cents per gallon, down 0.68 cents; March of RBOB gasoline futures fell 258.52 cents per gallon, down 1.79 cents; and March diesel futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange stood at US$885.00 per tonne, up US$5.75 from the previous trading day.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said that if the financial environment further deteriorates, the Fed will cut interest rates again. Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at the German Bank, said: “There are 100 reasons for the rise in oil prices because the market is very tight. The only thing that can curb oil prices is a series of economic recessions. This year's crude oil demand is expected to increase by 1 million barrels a day.”
New York crude oil futures delivered in March rose 0.73 US dollars, or 7%. The second consecutive trading day closes at more than 100 US dollars. The oil price reached $101.32 in intraday trading, the highest in history. March futures expired on Wednesday, and crude oil futures delivered in April closed at $99.70 a barrel, unchanged from Tuesday. Phil Flynn, an analyst and trader at Alaron Trading Company in Chicago, pointed out: "The expiration of futures is also one of the factors for the rise in oil prices."
The U.S. Department of Energy’s inventory report was postponed this week to 10:30 am local time Thursday due to the U.S. President’s holiday on Monday. According to the median forecast of the analyst survey by Bloomberg, the US crude oil inventories may increase by 2.28 million barrels from 301.1 million barrels to 303.4 million barrels in the week of February 15, mainly due to the declining demand for heating oil in the spring. The survey also revealed that last week US gasoline inventories may increase by 500,000 barrels from 229.2 million barrels, and distillate oil inventories may decrease by 2 million barrels from 127 million barrels. Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist at Japan's Mitsui & Co., Ltd. in Tokyo, said: "As the weather is getting warmer, refineries are reducing heating oil production and increasing gasoline production."
New York's oil prices fell to 86.24 US dollars per barrel on the 7th of this month, the lowest this year. At that time, in order to prevent the oil price from falling below 80 US dollars per barrel, some OPEC countries began to plan to reduce production. Officials of Iran and Algeria last week said that OPEC will cut production at its regular meeting on March 5.
Hannes Loacker, analyst of the Austrian Central Bank’s oil issue, said: “If OPEC cuts production during the second quarter of declining demand, it will be a key factor in determining the trend of oil prices. However, I think that when the price is between 95 and 100 US dollars per barrel, the situation is not reduced. It's too much."
Lehman raised its average price forecast of US$86 per barrel in the first quarter on Wednesday. Lehman economist Morse believes that current oil prices are affected by the financial markets, not by the fundamentals of supply and demand. He also believes that OPEC could not cut production at the March meeting because Saudi Arabia is uneasy about the price of US$100 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday that it would maintain its forecast of the 2008 average price of oil in New York, still at $95, and forecast that oil prices will rise to more than $105 a barrel in the second half of the year.
Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners, said: "If nothing else, oil prices will rise to $120 to $150 a barrel by the end of the year. Not just oil, all commodity prices are rising: Soybeans are up At $14 per bushel, aluminum has risen to $2,000 per ounce." On Tuesday, prices for gasoline and heating oil in New York also hit record highs.
According to the latest news, the package price of the organization, calculated from the weighted average price of 12 member countries of OPEC on February 19, was US$92.64 per barrel, which was US$1.26 higher than the previous trading day.
Wednesday's Asian benchmark crude oil spot follows Western crude oil futures. Dubai crude oil for delivery in May was at $92.85 a barrel at the close of trading, up $2.10 from the previous trading day. In May, the Brent/Dubai crude exchange price is now trading at a price of $4.65 per barrel, and the May WTI/Dubai exchange is now trading at a price of $5.65 per barrel.
Wednesday's assessment of the Singapore market price of 111 US dollars per barrel, up 2.10 US dollars over the previous trading day; diesel hit a record high, the diesel market assessment price of 114.90 US dollars a barrel, up 2.10 US dollars over the previous trading day.
On Wednesday, the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures rose in an all-round way, with an increase in trading volume and open interest. March futures settled at 4,186 yuan per ton, up 46 yuan from the previous day's settlement price. April 2008 futures settlement price of 4255 yuan per ton, compared with the previous trading day settlement price rose 12 yuan. In May 2008, the futures trading activity was active. The opening price was 4,213 yuan per ton, with a trading volume of 84,292 contracts and 36,174 hand positions. Compared with the previous trading day, it increased 3,734 contracts, and the closing price in the afternoon was 4,181 yuan per ton; the settlement price was 4,212 yuan per ton. The previous day's settlement price rose by 97 yuan, and the transaction range was 4171-4248 yuan per ton.
Wednesday, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange crude oil futures and refined oil futures rose. February crude oil futures closed at 6,1080 yen per cubic meter, up 570 yen from the previous trading day and trading volume at 28 lots; March gasoline futures closed at 69230 yen per cubic meter, up 750 points from the previous day's settlement price. The yen was 348 lots. In March, kerosene futures closed at 76,900 yen per cubic meter, up by 800 yen from the previous day's settlement price, with 191 lots.

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