Behind the optimistic growth, everyone ignored the important influence of the policy on the auto market. For example, if the restrictions on licensing, restrictions and other policies are promoted in major cities across the country, will the market capacity be pulled down?
For the Chinese auto market, which is still in the adjustment period, from June to July, this off-season, which was originally part of the auto market, was not so light this year, and various things have continued to occur, stimulating people's nerves.
At the market level, on the one hand, dealer stocks have soared, the market has continued to slump, and many dealers have sounded stock alerts. On the other hand, car companies are actively expanding their production capacity with extremely high enthusiasm.
Since the expansion of production capacity in 2010, it seems that car companies have once again ushered in a “small upsurge†of capacity expansion. In May, the Shanghai Volkswagen No. 7 plant officially settled in Xinjiang; in June, Shanghai General Motors Wuhan Branch laid the foundation, the Dongfeng Nissan Dalian plant laid the foundation, and the Dongfeng Yueda Kia third plant laid the foundation.
However, which one is the true market reflection? Will the Chinese market continue to grow slightly in the coming years? In a variety of noisy sounds, this is very confusing. Because the background of the two expansions is not the same. Two years ago, the enthusiasm of the market was high, and it was difficult for companies to work overtime to cope with the strong market demand; today, the end market is a persistent sales trough.
The perspective is different and the problem is not the same. From the factory level, it is the sustained development of the automotive market in the coming years. It usually takes two to three years from the foundation to the final production. If equipped with more abundant production capacity, manufacturers can deal with it in the face of market challenges. From the dealer's point of view, more attention is paid to the immediate interests, reflecting the volatility of the market in the short term.
From this perspective, most manufacturers are still full of confidence in the development of the Chinese market in the next few years. In the interview, the reporter also learned from a number of high-level car companies that the confidence in the market, they believe that although the Chinese economy has a slowing trend, but it will continue to maintain a moderate development, per capita income will gradually increase.
However, behind the optimistic growth, everyone has ignored the important impact of policies on the auto market. For example, if the restrictions on licensing, restrictions and other policies are promoted in major cities across the country, will the market capacity be pulled down? The market is not simply judged by macroeconomic development and personal income. In Singapore, Hong Kong and other markets, although the economy is developed and the disposable income per capita is high, the auto market is strictly controlled by policies and the growth rate of occupancy is not fast.
The amount of car ownership and road network construction in second-tier cities is far from being comparable to first-tier cities. Just think, if the auto ownership keeps growing at a high rate, will the purchase restriction policy continue to spread? Does policy risk exist?
During the Beijing auto show, Zhan Qinghong, general manager of GAC Group, said in an exclusive interview that whether Guangzhou or Shenzhen, if infrastructure and management can not keep up, sooner or later it will limit or limit the line. Taking Shenzhen as an example, the road is 6,800 kilometers, and the vehicle ownership has exceeded 2 million (as of December last year). According to the calculation, the number of cars per kilometre on a two-lane road has reached 300 meters, far exceeding the international limit of 270 vehicles.
Looking back now, the facts have confirmed his statement. Not only first-tier cities but also second- and third-tier cities also face infrastructure and management that cannot keep up with the increase in car ownership. Once the second and third tier cities have issued large-scale purchase restrictions, it means that all domestic auto makers will bid farewell to good days. Perhaps, the enthusiasm of expansion of car companies at that time will be completely extinguished.
For the Chinese auto market, which is still in the adjustment period, from June to July, this off-season, which was originally part of the auto market, was not so light this year, and various things have continued to occur, stimulating people's nerves.
At the market level, on the one hand, dealer stocks have soared, the market has continued to slump, and many dealers have sounded stock alerts. On the other hand, car companies are actively expanding their production capacity with extremely high enthusiasm.
Since the expansion of production capacity in 2010, it seems that car companies have once again ushered in a “small upsurge†of capacity expansion. In May, the Shanghai Volkswagen No. 7 plant officially settled in Xinjiang; in June, Shanghai General Motors Wuhan Branch laid the foundation, the Dongfeng Nissan Dalian plant laid the foundation, and the Dongfeng Yueda Kia third plant laid the foundation.
However, which one is the true market reflection? Will the Chinese market continue to grow slightly in the coming years? In a variety of noisy sounds, this is very confusing. Because the background of the two expansions is not the same. Two years ago, the enthusiasm of the market was high, and it was difficult for companies to work overtime to cope with the strong market demand; today, the end market is a persistent sales trough.
The perspective is different and the problem is not the same. From the factory level, it is the sustained development of the automotive market in the coming years. It usually takes two to three years from the foundation to the final production. If equipped with more abundant production capacity, manufacturers can deal with it in the face of market challenges. From the dealer's point of view, more attention is paid to the immediate interests, reflecting the volatility of the market in the short term.
From this perspective, most manufacturers are still full of confidence in the development of the Chinese market in the next few years. In the interview, the reporter also learned from a number of high-level car companies that the confidence in the market, they believe that although the Chinese economy has a slowing trend, but it will continue to maintain a moderate development, per capita income will gradually increase.
However, behind the optimistic growth, everyone has ignored the important impact of policies on the auto market. For example, if the restrictions on licensing, restrictions and other policies are promoted in major cities across the country, will the market capacity be pulled down? The market is not simply judged by macroeconomic development and personal income. In Singapore, Hong Kong and other markets, although the economy is developed and the disposable income per capita is high, the auto market is strictly controlled by policies and the growth rate of occupancy is not fast.
The amount of car ownership and road network construction in second-tier cities is far from being comparable to first-tier cities. Just think, if the auto ownership keeps growing at a high rate, will the purchase restriction policy continue to spread? Does policy risk exist?
During the Beijing auto show, Zhan Qinghong, general manager of GAC Group, said in an exclusive interview that whether Guangzhou or Shenzhen, if infrastructure and management can not keep up, sooner or later it will limit or limit the line. Taking Shenzhen as an example, the road is 6,800 kilometers, and the vehicle ownership has exceeded 2 million (as of December last year). According to the calculation, the number of cars per kilometre on a two-lane road has reached 300 meters, far exceeding the international limit of 270 vehicles.
Looking back now, the facts have confirmed his statement. Not only first-tier cities but also second- and third-tier cities also face infrastructure and management that cannot keep up with the increase in car ownership. Once the second and third tier cities have issued large-scale purchase restrictions, it means that all domestic auto makers will bid farewell to good days. Perhaps, the enthusiasm of expansion of car companies at that time will be completely extinguished.
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