A new online tool for the prediction of atmospheric ash during volcanic eruptions has been made publicly available to scientists around the world. Created by researchers at the University of Bristol in the United Kingdom, it will enable forecasts to more accurately predict the spread of volcanic ash clouds, better airspace management, and paves the way for a volcanic crisis.
It has been revealed that in 2010 eruption of the Icelandic Eyjafjallajokull volcano, the ground plane and cancellation of the Easter holiday plan in Europe, may have released more than 10 times the ash than originally thought. "Our research is an important development in our modeling of volcanic pinnates," said Woodhouse, one of the creators of Dr. Mark PlumeRise, the lead author of the original study. "This model can be matched with the state-of-the-art prediction tools used to predict the volcanic ash spread during the volcanic crisis." Prior to this, it was estimated that only the amount of volcanic plume emitted from the volcanic eruptions was measured by the height of the plume. But this method is only reliable in still air. To consider the effects of the wind, mathematicians and Earth scientists at the University of Bristol combine their expertise to create a new mathematical model. The model shows that strong winds are high because they will reach the ash column under calm conditions. This means that estimates can be greatly shed, relying only on feather height to measure actual figures. Now the team has taken their research step and created an online tool that can be used by scientists around the world to predict and monitor how much volcanic ash is released during the eruption process. The information is then fed into a forecast of how the volcanic ash cloud will be transmitted to a more reliable forecast, and how the airspace will need to be managed accordingly. The release of ash during the eruption of the ash, the meteorological simulation of the diffusion of ash clouds into the atmosphere, is an important input," said Dr. Jeremy Phillips, co-founder PlumeRise.
It is used to provide information directly from the volcanic ash advisory center to the aviation industry. We are doing this openly and freely as a web-based tool that anyone wants to use.
Having been tested, PlumeRise has several volcanic ash advisory centers (VAACs) around the world, including the London Meteorological Agency volcanic ash advisory center, covering the United Kingdom, Iceland and the northeastern North Atlantic. It is also used by academic institutions in Japan, Italy, Iceland Meteorological Bureau.
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